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Data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the state entity that calculates fuel prices, point to 95 unleaded petrol rising by about R3.16 a litre on Wednesday, to roughly R30.08. Wholesale diesel is set to rise by about R3, taking it to a record R33.06 a litre.

Higher fuel costs raise the price of moving food and other goods to shops, which means households can expect grocery bills and taxi fares to climb in the months ahead. Diesel is the bigger worry because it powers the trucks, tractors, and mines on which the rest of the economy depends.

According to Bheki Mahlobo, in-house economist at The Common Sense, “October’s fuel price increase will push South Africa’s headline inflation closer to 5%, and a looming American diesel export ban threatens to add further inflationary pressure ahead of the final meeting of the year of the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, due to be held next month.”

There is an additional risk to inflation. President Donald Trump is considering a 90-day ban on American diesel exports to bring down record fuel prices in the United States before November’s midterm elections. Such a ban would push up international diesel prices, and those higher prices would filter through to South Africa.

Mahlobo correctly forecast the South African Reserve Bank’s September hike of 25 basis points, which took the repo rate to 7.25%. He now expects the rise in fuel prices to push inflation closer to 5%, which is way above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 3%, which signals that the bank may hike the rate by another 25 basis points in its final meeting for 2026 in the middle of November, taking the repo rate to 7.50%.